• Technology & Engineering

Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems

Author: Paul K. Davis,Jonathan Kulick,Michael Egner
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 083304088X
Category: Technology & Engineering
Page: 180
View: 9704
A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.

    • Combat

Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation

Author: Paul K. Davis,Amy E. Henninger
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833041266
Category: Combat
Page: 54
View: 5064
An examination of analysis and analysis practices for defense planning, the paper1s purpose is to delineate priorities for the way ahead, i.e., for investments and other actions to ensure that future models and simulations will serve the needs of decisionmakers. The analysis in question is accomplished for Quadrennial Reviews and for continuing work on capability assessments, requirements analysis, and program analysis.

    • Political Science

The Network Governance in Response to Acts of Terrorism

Comparative Analyses
Author: Naim Kapucu
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0415500117
Category: Political Science
Page: 281
View: 2724
High performance during catastrophic terrorist events require the ability to assess and adapt capacity rapidly, restore or enhance disrupted or inadequate communications, utilize flexible decision making swiftly, and expand coordination and trust between multiple emergency and crisis response agencies. These requirements are superimposed on conventional administrative systems that rely on relatively rigid plans, decision protocols, and formal relationships that assume smooth sailing and uninterrupted communications and coordination. Network Governance in Response to Acts of Terrorism focuses on the inter-organizational performance and coordinated response to recent terrorist incidents across different national, legal, and cultural contexts in New York, Bali, Istanbul, Madrid, London, and Mumbai. Effortlessly combining each case study with content analyses of news reports from local and national newspapers, situation reports from government emergency/crisis management agencies, and, interviews with public managers, community leaders, and nonprofit executives involved in response operations, Naim Kapucu presents an overview of how different countries tackle emergencies by employing various collaborative decision-making processes, thus, offering a global perspective with different approaches. These features make this book an important read for both scholars and practitioners eager to reconcile existing decision-making theories with practice.

    • Mathematics

Intelligent Decision Making: An AI-Based Approach

Author: Gloria Phillips-Wren,Nikhil Ichalkaranje
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3540768297
Category: Mathematics
Page: 410
View: 6770
Intelligent Decision Support Systems have the potential to transform human decision making by combining research in artificial intelligence, information technology, and systems engineering. The field of intelligent decision making is expanding rapidly due, in part, to advances in artificial intelligence and network-centric environments that can deliver the technology. Communication and coordination between dispersed systems can deliver just-in-time information, real-time processing, collaborative environments, and globally up-to-date information to a human decision maker. At the same time, artificial intelligence techniques have demonstrated that they have matured sufficiently to provide computational assistance to humans in practical applications. This book includes contributions from leading researchers in the field beginning with the foundations of human decision making and the complexity of the human cognitive system. Researchers contrast human and artificial intelligence, survey computational intelligence, present pragmatic systems, and discuss future trends. This book will be an invaluable resource to anyone interested in the current state of knowledge and key research gaps in the rapidly developing field of intelligent decision support.

    • Business & Economics

Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking

Author: Paul K. Davis,James P. Kahan
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833040391
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 77
View: 8176
This report describes an approach to high-level decision support that deals explicitly with uncertainty in effects-based operations or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Two approaches are described, one using portfolio-style thinking and analysis, the other a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses inclusion of humans in dealing with uncertainty. Some investment priorities are also recommended.

    • Computer simulation

Enabling Technology for Simulation Science

Author: Dawn A. Trevisani
Publisher: Society of Photo Optical
ISBN: 9780819462831
Category: Computer simulation
Page: 226
View: 9849

    • History

Managing Risk in USAF Force Planning

Author: N.A
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 9780833046307
Category: History
Page: 226
View: 7427
The U.S. Department of Defense is currently shifting funding from future investment programs to cover urgent war needs, accepting some increase in future risk in order to reduce risk in the near term, and this tension between current and future operational priorities is likely to worsen. To effectively manage risk across possible missions and between today and tomorrow, senior Air Force leaders must make difficult decisions. This monograph seeks to provide the Air Force with a framework to structure their deliberations, connect them to supporting staff and expert inputs, and communicate their decisions to a broader audience. It describes a risk-management process that would help senior Air Force leaders to (1) focus planning on the most salient threats, (2) gain greater clarity on the risks associated with alternative courses of action across multiple futures, (3) maintain a sense of the persistent uncertainties associated with any policy choice, and (4) effectively communicate their judgments about riskto key audiences.


Social Science for Counterterrorism

Putting the Pieces Together
Author: Paul K. Davis,Kim Cragin
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 9780833047069
Page: 486
View: 999
This monograph surveys and integrates scholarly social-science literature relevant to counterterrorism. It draws from numerous disciplines and then uses high-level conceptual models to pull the pieces together regarding root causes, individual radicalization, public support, and the ways in which terrorism fades. It identifies points of agreement and disagreement and discusses the consequences of different contexts and perspectives.

    • Political Science

Marrying prevention and resiliency

balancing approaches to an uncertain terrorist threat
Author: Brian A. Jackson,Rand Homeland Security (Program)
Publisher: Rand Corp
ISBN: 9780833046321
Category: Political Science
Page: 18
View: 5489
The uncertain nature of the terrorist threat is a fundamental challenge in the design of counterterrorism policy. To deal with this uncertainty, the author recommends a capabilities-based, portfolio approach to terrorism prevention planning, drawing examples from aviation security policy. While traditional terrorism-prevention measures seek to prevent all damage by stopping them completely, mitigation and resiliency measures buy a lower, but more certain, payoff: preventing only some of the damage from attacks, but doing so predictably across the many different ways in which threats might become manifest. In a prevention and mitigation portfolio, some measures would reach for the highest payoff of completely preventing attacks, while others would provide a more-stable protective return by limiting the damages any terrorist operation or other incident. Protective portfolios should be assessed to determine which will perform well across a range of possible futures and be judged less sensitive to threat uncertainty -- and therefore more attractive given an uncertain future.

    • Business & Economics

The Economic Burden of Providing Health Insurance

How Much Worse Off Are Small Firms?
Author: N.A
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 164
View: 3281
More than 60 percent of nonelderly Americans receive health-insurance (HI) coverage through employers. However, rising health-care costs may threaten the long-term viability of the employer-based insurance system. This report explores trends in the economic burden associated with HI provision for small and large businesses, as well as the quality of plans that small and large firms offer.

    • Political Science

Simple Models to Explore Deterrence and More General Influence in the War with Al-Qaeda

Author: Paul K. Davis
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Category: Political Science
Page: 36
View: 1794
Deterring terrorism is best approached as part of a broad effort to influence all elements of a terrorist system, and simple, conceptual models of decisionmaking can help in understanding how to affect others' behavior. The paper lays out a theory of how to use influence to affect elements of a terrorist system, touching on root causes, individual motivation, public support, and likely factors in the decisionmaking of terrorist organizations.

    • History

The Ideology of the Offensive

Military Decision Making and the Disasters of 1914 (Cornell Studies in Security Affairs)
Author: Jack Snyder
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 0801468612
Category: History
Page: 272
View: 9342
Jack Snyder's analysis of the attitudes of military planners in the years prior to the Great War offers new insight into the tragic miscalculations of that era and into their possible parallels in present-day war planning. By 1914, the European military powers had adopted offensive military strategies even though there was considerable evidence to support the notion that much greater advantage lay with defensive strategies. The author argues that organizational biases inherent in military strategists' attitudes make war more likely by encouraging offensive postures even when the motive is self-defense. Drawing on new historical evidence of the specific circumstances surrounding French, German, and Russian strategic policy, Snyder demonstrates that it is not only rational analysis that determines strategic doctrine, but also the attitudes of military planners. Snyder argues that the use of rational calculation often falls victim to the pursuit of organizational interests such as autonomy, prestige, growth, and wealth. Furthermore, efforts to justify the preferred policy bring biases into strategists' decisions—biases reflecting the influences of parochial interests and preconceptions, and those resulting from attempts to simplify unduly their analytical tasks. The frightening lesson here is that doctrines can be destabilizing even when weapons are not, because doctrine may be more responsive to the organizational needs of the military than to the implications of the prevailing weapons technology. By examining the historical failure of offensive doctrine, Jack Snyder makes a valuable contribution to the literature on the causes of war.

    • Political Science

Complex Political Decision-Making

Leadership, Legitimacy and Communication
Author: Peter Bursens,Christ'l De Landtsheer,Luc Braeckmans,Barbara Segaert
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1315453517
Category: Political Science
Page: 235
View: 4109
Political and societal elites are increasingly confronted with complex environments in which they need to take collective decisions. Decision-makers are faced with policy issues situated at different intertwined levels which need to be negotiated with different actors. The negotiation and decision-making processes raise issues of legitimacy, leadership and communication. Modern societal systems are not only affected by horizontal specialization and diversity but also by a vertical expansion of governance layers. The national level is no longer the sole, or even the most important, level of governance. In these complex environments, cognitive abilities and personalities of political and societal elites have gained importance. This book addresses the impact of an increasingly complex environment on the legitimacy and transparency of polities, on the role of leadership and political personality and on motivated images, rhetoric and communication. Examining how these issues interact at the macro and theoretical level, the types of problems decision-makers face and how they communicate ideas with their audiences, it brings together leading experts in political psychology, law and political science to bridge the gap in the way these disciplines explore the issue of complex decision-making.

    • Business & Economics

The processes of technological innovation

Author: Louis G. Tornatzky,Mitchell Fleischer,Alok K. Chakrabarti
Publisher: Free Press
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 298
View: 6333

    • History

China’s Incomplete Military Transformation

Assessing the Weaknesses of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
Author: Michael S. Chase,Jeffrey Engstrom,Tai Ming Cheung,Kristen A. Gunness,Scott Warren Harold,Susan Puska,Samuel K. Berkowitz
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833088319
Category: History
Page: 200
View: 5146
Through extensive primary source analysis and independent analysis, this report seeks to answer a number of important questions regarding the state of China’s armed forces. The authors found that the PLA is keenly aware of its many weaknesses and is vigorously striving to correct them. Although it is only natural to focus on the PLA’s growing capabilities, understanding the PLA’s weaknesses—and its self-assessments—is no less important.

    • Business & Economics

The Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making

Author: Gerard P. Hodgkinson,William H. Starbuck
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 9780199290468
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 620
View: 1753
The Oxford Handbook of Decision-Making comprehensively surveys theory and research on organizational decision-making, broadly conceived. Emphasizing psychological perspectives, while encompassing the insights of economics, political science, and sociology, it provides coverage at theindividual, group, organizational, and inter-organizational levels of analysis. In-depth case studies illustrate the practical implications of the work surveyed.Each chapter is authored by one or more leading scholars, thus ensuring that this Handbook is an authoritative reference work for academics, researchers, advanced students, and reflective practitioners concerned with decision-making in the areas of Management, Psychology, and HRM.Contributors: Eric Abrahamson, Julia Balogun, Michael L Barnett, Philippe Baumard, Nicole Bourque, Laure Cabantous, Prithviraj Chattopadhyay, Kevin Daniels, Jerker Denrell, Vinit M Desai, Giovanni Dosi, Roger L M Dunbar, Stephen M Fiore, Mark A Fuller, Michael Shayne Gary, Elizabeth George,Jean-Pascal Gond, Paul Goodwin, Terri L Griffith, Mark P Healey, Gerard P Hodgkinson, Gerry Johnson, Michael E Johnson-Cramer, Alfred Kieser, Ann Langley, Eleanor T Lewis, Dan Lovallo, Rebecca Lyons, Peter M Madsen, A. John Maule, John M Mezias, Nigel Nicholson, Gregory B Northcraft, David Oliver,Annie Pye, Karlene H Roberts, Jacques Rojot, Michael A Rosen, Isabelle Royer, Eugene Sadler-Smith, Eduardo Salas, Kristyn A Scott, Zur Shapira, Carolyne Smart, Gerald F Smith, Emma Soane, Paul R Sparrow, William H Starbuck, Matt Statler, Kathleen M Sutcliffe, Michal Tamuz , Teri JaneUrsacki-Bryant, Ilan Vertinsky, Benedicte Vidaillet, Jane Webster, Karl E Weick, Benjamin Wellstein, George Wright, Kuo Frank Yu, and David Zweig.

    • Biography & Autobiography

War and Decision

Inside the Pentagon at the Dawn of the War on Terrorism
Author: Douglas J. Feith
Publisher: Harper Collins
ISBN: 0061763462
Category: Biography & Autobiography
Page: 704
View: 1131
In the years since the attacks of September 11, 2001, journalists, commentators, and others have published accounts of the Bush Administration's war on terrorism. But no senior Pentagon official has offered an inside view of those years, or has challenged the prevailing narrative of that war—until now. Douglas J. Feith, the head of the Pentagon's Policy organization, was a key member of Donald Rumsfeld's inner circle as the Administration weighed how to protect the nation from another 9/11. In War and Decision, he puts readers in the room with President Bush, Vice President Cheney, Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, Condoleezza Rice, Colin Powell, General Tommy Franks, and other key players as the Administration devised its strategy and war plans. Drawing on thousands of previously undisclosed documents, notes, and other written sources, Feith details how the Administration launched a global effort to attack and disrupt terrorist networks; how it decided to overthrow the Saddam Hussein regime; how it came to impose an occupation on Iraq even though it had avoided one in Afghanistan; how some officials postponed or impeded important early steps that could have averted major problems in Iraq's post-Saddam period; and how the Administration's errors in war-related communications undermined the nation's credibility and put U.S. war efforts at risk. Even close followers of reporting on the Iraq war will be surprised at the new information Feith provides—presented here with balance and rigorous attention to detail. Among other revelations, War and Decision demonstrates that the most far-reaching warning of danger in Iraq was produced not by State or by the CIA, but by the Pentagon. It reveals the actual story behind the allegations that the Pentagon wanted to "anoint" Ahmad Chalabi as ruler of Iraq, and what really happened when the Pentagon challenged the CIA's work on the Iraq–al Qaida relationship. It offers the first accurate account of Iraq postwar planning—a topic widely misreported to date. And it presents surprising new portraits of Rumsfeld, Rice, Powell, Richard Armitage, L. Paul Bremer, and others—revealing how differences among them shaped U.S. policy. With its blend of vivid narrative, frank analysis, and elegant writing, War and Decision is like no other book on the Iraq war. It will interest those who have been troubled by conflicting accounts of the planning of the war, frustrated by the lack of firsthand insight into the decision-making process, or skeptical of conventional wisdom about Operation Iraqi Freedom and the global war on terrorism—efforts the author continues to support.

    • Mathematics

Handbook of Group Decision and Negotiation

Author: D. Marc Kilgour,Colin Eden
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9789048190973
Category: Mathematics
Page: 477
View: 1801
Publication of the Handbook of Group Decision and Negotiation marks a milestone in the evolution of the group decision and negotiation (GDN) eld. On this occasion, editors Colin Eden and Marc Kilgour asked me to write a brief history of the eld to provide background and context for the volume. They said that I am in a good position to do so: Actively involved in creating the GDN Section and serving as its chair; founding and leading the GDN journal, Group Decision and Negotiation as editor-in-chief, and the book series, “Advances in Group Decision and Negotiation” as editor; and serving as general chair of the GDN annual meetings. I accepted their invitation to write a brief history. In 1989 what is now the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) established its Section on Group Decision and Negotiation. The journal Group Decision and Negotiation was founded in 1992, published by Springer in cooperation with INFORMS and the GDN Section. In 2003, as an ext- sion of the journal, the Springer book series, “Advances in Group Decision and Negotiation” was inaugurated.