• Business & Economics

The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail, But Some Don't
Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0143125087
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 534
View: 7046
The founder of FiveThirtyEight.com challenges myths about predictions in subjects ranging from the financial market and weather to sports and politics, profiling the world of prediction to explain how readers can distinguish true signals from hype, in a report that also reveals the sources and societal costs of wrongful predictions.

    • Business & Economics

Superforecasting

The Art and Science of Prediction
Author: Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 352
View: 3160
A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." —Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. From the Hardcover edition.

    • Bayesian statistical decision theory

The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes

A 30 Minute Expert Summary
Author: N.A
Publisher: N.A
ISBN: 9781623150525
Category: Bayesian statistical decision theory
Page: 46
View: 2533
The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

    • Mathematics

Chance Rules

An Informal Guide to Probability, Risk and Statistics
Author: Brian Everitt
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780387774152
Category: Mathematics
Page: 142
View: 5404
Chance continues to govern our lives in the 21st Century. From the genes we inherit and the environment into which we are born, to the lottery ticket we buy at the local store, much of life is a gamble. In business, education, travel, health, and marriage, we take chances in the hope of obtaining something better. Chance colors our lives with uncertainty, and so it is important to examine it and try to understand about how it operates in a number of different circumstances. Such understanding becomes simpler if we take some time to learn a little about probability, since probability is the natural language of uncertainty. This second edition of Chance Rules again recounts the story of chance through history and the various ways it impacts on our lives. Here you can read about the earliest gamblers who thought that the fall of the dice was controlled by the gods, as well as the modern geneticist and quantum theory researcher trying to integrate aspects of probability into their chosen speciality. Example included in the first addition such as the infamous Monty Hall problem, tossing coins, coincidences, horse racing, birthdays and babies remain, often with an expanded discussion, in this edition. Additional material in the second edition includes, a probabilistic explanation of why things were better when you were younger, consideration of whether you can use probability to prove the existence of God, how long you may have to wait to win the lottery, some court room dramas, predicting the future, and how evolution scores over creationism. Chance Rules lets you learn about probability without complex mathematics.

    • Mathematics

The Theory that Would Not Die

How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, & Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
Author: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 0300175094
Category: Mathematics
Page: 335
View: 6043
Bayes rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.

    • Forecasting

Surfing Uncertainty

Prediction, Action, and the Embodied Mind
Author: Andy Clark
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 0190217014
Category: Forecasting
Page: 401
View: 1557
This title brings together work on embodiment, action, and the predictive mind. At the core is the vision of human minds as prediction machines - devices that constantly try to stay one step ahead of the breaking waves of sensory stimulation, by actively predicting the incoming flow. In every situation we encounter, that complex prediction machinery is already buzzing, proactively trying to anticipate the sensory barrage. The book shows in detail how this strange but potent strategy of self-anticipation ushers perception, understanding, and imagination simultaneously onto the cognitive stage.

    • Mathematics

The Art of Data Analysis

How to Answer Almost Any Question Using Basic Statistics
Author: Kristin H. Jarman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118413342
Category: Mathematics
Page: 190
View: 7053
A friendly and accessible approach to applying statistics in the real world With an emphasis on critical thinking, The Art of Data Analysis: How to Answer Almost Any Question Using Basic Statistics presents fun and unique examples, guides readers through the entire data collection and analysis process, and introduces basic statistical concepts along the way. Leaving proofs and complicated mathematics behind, the author portrays the more engaging side of statistics and emphasizes its role as a problem-solving tool. In addition, light-hearted case studies illustrate the application of statistics to real data analyses, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of commonly used techniques. Written for the growing academic and industrial population that uses statistics in everyday life, The Art of Data Analysis: How to Answer Almost Any Question Using Basic Statistics highlights important issues that often arise when collecting and sifting through data. Featured concepts include: • Descriptive statistics • Analysis of variance • Probability and sample distributions • Confidence intervals • Hypothesis tests • Regression • Statistical correlation • Data collection • Statistical analysis with graphs Fun and inviting from beginning to end, The Art of Data Analysis is an ideal book for students as well as managers and researchers in industry, medicine, or government who face statistical questions and are in need of an intuitive understanding of basic statistical reasoning.

    • Mathematics

Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data


Author: Charles Wheelan
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN: 0393089827
Category: Mathematics
Page: 302
View: 8737
“Brilliant, funny . . . the best math teacher you never had.”—San Francisco Chronicle Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called “sexy.” From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more. For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions. And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.

    • Philosophy

The Hedgehog and the Fox

An Essay on Tolstoy’s View of History, Second Edition
Author: Isaiah Berlin
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400846633
Category: Philosophy
Page: 144
View: 4081
"The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." This ancient Greek aphorism, preserved in a fragment from the poet Archilochus, describes the central thesis of Isaiah Berlin's masterly essay on Leo Tolstoy and the philosophy of history, the subject of the epilogue to War and Peace. Although there have been many interpretations of the adage, Berlin uses it to mark a fundamental distinction between human beings who are fascinated by the infinite variety of things and those who relate everything to a central, all-embracing system. Applied to Tolstoy, the saying illuminates a paradox that helps explain his philosophy of history: Tolstoy was a fox, but believed in being a hedgehog. One of Berlin's most celebrated works, this extraordinary essay offers profound insights about Tolstoy, historical understanding, and human psychology. This new edition features a revised text that supplants all previous versions, English translations of the many passages in foreign languages, a new foreword in which Berlin biographer Michael Ignatieff explains the enduring appeal of Berlin's essay, and a new appendix that provides rich context, including excerpts from reviews and Berlin's letters, as well as a startling new interpretation of Archilochus's epigram.

    • Business & Economics

The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes

A 30 Minute Expert Summary
Author: N.A
Publisher: Callisto Media Inc
ISBN: 1623150531
Category: Business & Economics
Page: N.A
View: 4720
The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

    • Business & Economics

Big Data

A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think
Author: Viktor Mayer-Schönberger,Kenneth Cukier
Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
ISBN: 0544002938
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 240
View: 9854
A revelatory exploration of the hottest trend in technology and the dramatic impact it will have on the economy, science, and society at large. Which paint color is most likely to tell you that a used car is in good shape? How can officials identify the most dangerous New York City manholes before they explode? And how did Google searches predict the spread of the H1N1 flu outbreak? The key to answering these questions, and many more, is big data. “Big data” refers to our burgeoning ability to crunch vast collections of information, analyze it instantly, and draw sometimes profoundly surprising conclusions from it. This emerging science can translate myriad phenomena—from the price of airline tickets to the text of millions of books—into searchable form, and uses our increasing computing power to unearth epiphanies that we never could have seen before. A revolution on par with the Internet or perhaps even the printing press, big data will change the way we think about business, health, politics, education, and innovation in the years to come. It also poses fresh threats, from the inevitable end of privacy as we know it to the prospect of being penalized for things we haven’t even done yet, based on big data’s ability to predict our future behavior. In this brilliantly clear, often surprising work, two leading experts explain what big data is, how it will change our lives, and what we can do to protect ourselves from its hazards. Big Data is the first big book about the next big thing. www.big-data-book.com

    • Technology & Engineering

Radio Frequency Principles and Applications

The Generation, Propagation, and Reception of Signals and Noise
Author: Albert A. Smith
Publisher: IEEE
ISBN: 9780780369009
Category: Technology & Engineering
Page: 219
View: 2013
Now in one convenient volume you can have all the information you need on real-world applications of electromagnetic theory, including the prediction, analysis, and measurement of electromagnetic fields and their effects. Radio Frequency Principles and Applications will guide you from the basics of electromagnetic theory to a full range of new and vital applications.

    • Technology & Engineering

Operational Amplifier Noise

Techniques and Tips for Analyzing and Reducing Noise
Author: Art Kay
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080942431
Category: Technology & Engineering
Page: 248
View: 5856
Arthur Kay’s exciting new publication is a must have for practicing, professional electrical engineers. This comprehensive guide shows engineers how to design amplifiers and associated electronics to minimize noise, providing tricks, rules-of-thumb, and analysis to create successful low noise circuits. Forget the classical textbook traps of equations, virtual grounds, and a lot of double-speak, the novel but educational presentation used here uses definition-by -example and straight-forward analysis. This is the ultimate reference book for engineers who don't have the time to read, since the concepts are presented in detailed pictures and then repeated in the text for those who like both. Operational amplifiers play a vital role in modern electronics design. Today, op amps serve as the interfaces between the digital world of microprocessors, microcontrollers, and other digital circuits and the analog "real world". If an analog signal must be amplified, conditioned, filtered, or converted to be used by a digital system, an op amp is almost always involved. Noise is an unwanted signal that will corrupt or distort the desired signal, and veteran engineers as well as new college graduates are often faced with a lack of experience in noise analysis for operational amplifiers. The author has created a publication that is packed with essential information, while still being accessible to all readers. Clear, definition-by-example presentation allows for immediate use of techniques introduced Tricks and rules-of-thumb, derived from author's decades of experience Extreme use of figures for rapid absorption of concepts Concise text explains the key points in all figures Accessible to all types of readers Analysis and design of low-noise circuits using op amps, including design tradeoffs for low-noise Desktop reference for designing low-noise op amp circuits for novice to experienced engineers Accurate measurement and prediction of intrinsic noise levels, using analysis by hand and SPICE simulation

    • Deception (Military science)

Double Cross

The True Story of the D-Day Spies
Author: Ben Macintyre
Publisher: A&C Black
ISBN: 1408830620
Category: Deception (Military science)
Page: 417
View: 4867
The number one bestselling author of Agent Zigzag and Operation Mincemeat exposes the true story of the D Day Spies.

    • Political Science

The Predictioneer's Game

Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future
Author: Bruce Bueno De Mesquita
Publisher: Random House
ISBN: 1588369080
Category: Political Science
Page: 272
View: 9853
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts. Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize—winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban). But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn’t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone). Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer’s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life’s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose. From the Hardcover edition.

    • BIOGRAPHY & AUTOBIOGRAPHY

Ripples in Spacetime

Einstein, Gravitational Waves, and the Future of Astronomy
Author: Govert Schilling
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 0674971663
Category: BIOGRAPHY & AUTOBIOGRAPHY
Page: 340
View: 1262
The detection of gravitational waves—ripples in spacetime—has already been called the scientific coup of this century. Govert Schilling recounts the struggles that threatened to derail the quest and describes the detector’s astounding precision, weaving far-reaching discoveries about the universe into a gripping story of ambition and perseverance.

    • Psychology

Future Babble

Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best
Author: Daniel Gardner
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 1101476095
Category: Psychology
Page: 320
View: 6046
An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history. In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

    • Technology & Engineering

Sound Reproduction

The Acoustics and Psychoacoustics of Loudspeakers and Rooms
Author: Floyd E. Toole
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317415094
Category: Technology & Engineering
Page: 490
View: 6542
Sound Reproduction: The Acoustics and Psychoacoustics of Loudspeakers and Rooms, Third Edition explains the physical and perceptual processes that are involved in sound reproduction and demonstrates how to use the processes to create high-quality listening experiences in stereo and multichannel formats. Understanding the principles of sound production is necessary to achieve the goals of sound reproduction in spaces ranging from recording control rooms and home listening rooms to large cinemas. This revision brings new science-based perspectives on the performance of loudspeakers, room acoustics, measurements and equalization, all of which need to be appropriately used to ensure the accurate delivery of music and movie sound tracks from creators to listeners. The robust website (www.routledge.com/cw/toole) is the perfect companion to this necessary resource.

    • Business & Economics

The Signals Are Talking

Why Today's Fringe Is Tomorrow's Mainstream
Author: Amy Webb
Publisher: PublicAffairs
ISBN: 1610396677
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 336
View: 656
A Fast Company best book of the yearA Washington Post bestsellerWinner of the 2017 Axiom Business Book Award in Business Technology How do you tell a real trend from the merely trendy? How, for example, will a technology--like artificial intelligence, machine learning, self-driving cars, biohacking, bots, and the Internet of Things--affect us, our businesses, and workplaces? How will it eventually change the way we live, work, play, and think--and how should we prepare for it now? In The Signals Are Talking, noted futurist Amy Webb shows us how to analyze the "true signals"--those patterns that will coalesce into a trend with the potential to change everything-and land on the right side of disruption. The future, Webb shows, isn't something that happens to us passively. Using a proven, tested methodology, she enables us to see ahead and forecast what's to come--challenging us to create our own preferred futures.

    • Language Arts & Disciplines

Social Media Strategy

Marketing and Advertising in the Consumer Revolution
Author: Keith A. Quesenberry
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 1442251549
Category: Language Arts & Disciplines
Page: 256
View: 6245
Social Media Strategy is your guide to practicing marketing, advertising, and public relations in a world of social media-empowered consumers. Grounded in a refreshing balance of concept, theory, industry statistics, and real-world examples, Keith Quesenberry introduces readers to the steps of building a complete social media plan and how companies can integrate the social media consumer landscape. This simple, systematic text leads readers through core marketing concepts and how to think critically about the competitive marketplace—even as it shifts the perspective from an outdated communications-control model to a more effective consumer engagement method provides a step-by-step roadmap for planning social media marketing strategy emphasizes the need to apply solid marketing principles to social media explores how to integrate social media throughout an entire organization gives students and other readers skills vital for leveraging consumer knowledge and influence for the good of a brand. The end result delivers the context, process and tools needed to create a comprehensive and unique social media plan for any business or organization. FOR PROFESSORS: Ancillary resources are available for this title, including a sample syllabus and templates for social media audits, content calendars, storylines, and more.